Publications

We show that the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) and expected returns exists only among firms with low profitability and high uncertainty about profitability. We propose an incomplete information model in which agents cannot disentangle systematic from idiosyncratic shocks. While not priced directly, IVOL affects expected returns by lowering signal accuracy, which decreases the factor loading on the systematic risk and yields the negative IVOL-return relation. The model predicts that this negative relation is the strongest among underperforming firms with highly uncertain profitability. Our model effectively explains a significant portion of the observed negative IVOL-return relation (86%) in the data.

International investors require additional compensation, charged on top of the systematic risk premium, to hold assets displaying asymmetric dependence in returns. We document that the degree and pricing of asymmetric dependence differs substantially across the 38 markets examined. Asymmetric dependence strengthens in fast-developing equity markets. We propose policy actions aimed at improving firm competition levels through reducing restrictions for new firms to enter financial markets, which may help stabilize markets and reduce conditional risk levels of equities during downturn events.

REITs are often assumed to be defensive assets having a low correlation with market returns. However, this dependence is not symmetric across the joint-return distribution. Disappointment-averse investors with state-dependent preferences attach (dis-)utility to investments exhibiting (lower-tail) upper-tail asymmetric dependence. We find strong empirical evidence that investors price this asymmetric dependence in the cross section of US REIT returns. In particular, we show that REIT stocks with lower-tail asymmetric dependence attract a risk premium averaging 1.3% p.a. and REIT stocks exhibiting upper-tail asymmetric dependence are traded at discount averaging 5.8% p.a. We find no evidence that the equity β is positively priced in US REIT returns. Our findings imply that traditional estimators of REIT cost of capital and performance measurement are likely to be substantially misrepresentative.